Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints24
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–100
- Q423.1Jalen Pickett bad pass (Jordan Goodwin steals)123–100
- Q426.1Dalton Knecht bad pass (Zeke Nnaji steals)123–100
- Q446.1Jalen Pickett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)123–100
- Q459.1Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Spencer Jones123–97
- Q459.1Shake Milton steps out of bounds turnover123–97
- Q41:09Shake Milton defensive rebound123–97
- Q41:13PJ Hall misses 25-foot three point jumper123–97
- Q41:19Trey Jemison III makes 8-foot hook shot123–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:13Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 68 – 62 DEN · LAL 47% → 56% +9LAL 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q36:29Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 77 – 71 DEN · DEN 32% → 41% +9DEN 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q35:43Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAL 80 – 74 DEN · DEN 31% → 41% +10DEN 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q35:14Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 83 – 74 DEN · LAL 60% → 69% +10LAL 60% → 69%+10 pts
- Q33:12Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 88 – 77 DEN · LAL 69% → 78% +9LAL 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML LAL +195 / DEN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 67.1%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -208
- LAL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.5 – 125.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +49 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +124 Elo | DEN 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 121.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +5.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 118.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 20–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–24 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–8 DEN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit
- Apr 20LAL 103 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- Mar 2DEN 124 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Feb 8DEN 114 @ LAL 106Picked DEN 51%Hit