Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints29
- Jusuf NurkicAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–97
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound100–97
- Q41.0LeBron James misses 28-foot three point shot100–97
- Q42.1Gabe Vincent offensive rebound100–97
- Q45.0LeBron James misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot100–97
- Q46.1Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Seth Curry100–97
- Q46.1Elfrid Payton enters the game for LaMelo Ball100–97
- Q46.1Luka Doncic enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt100–97
- Q46.1Lakers Full timeout100–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:19Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)CHA 88 – 88 LAL · CHA 21% → 38% +18CHA 21% → 38%+18 pts
- Q41:53Miles Bridges makes 30-foot three pointerCHA 93 – 90 LAL · CHA 42% → 72% +30CHA 42% → 72%+30 pts
- Q41:46Jaxson Hayes makes 5-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)CHA 93 – 92 LAL · LAL 27% → 47% +20LAL 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q41:03Luka Doncic makes two point shotCHA 93 – 94 LAL · LAL 42% → 69% +27LAL 42% → 69%+27 pts
- Q447.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)CHA 96 – 94 LAL · CHA 30% → 75% +46CHA 30% → 75%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -13.5
- ML CHA +500 / LAL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -11.5
- LAL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 86.4%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -533
- CHA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.5 – 122.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1297 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +28 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +321 Elo | LAL 86.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 86.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 86.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 113.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +0.812th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 19–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–26 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–33 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.