Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints30
- KJ SimpsonAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–112
- Q420.0Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Tidjane Salaun assists)102–112
- Q425.1Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound99–112
- Q427.0Tidjane Salaun misses two point shot99–112
- Q431.1KJ Simpson offensive rebound99–112
- Q434.1Seth Curry misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–112
- Q439.0Jalen Duren makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)99–112
- Q447.1Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)99–110
- Q41:06Miles Bridges defensive rebound96–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:23Taj Gibson makes dunkCHA 87 – 90 DET · CHA 15% → 21% +7CHA 15% → 21%+7 pts
- Q47:48KJ Simpson makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 90 – 92 DET · CHA 15% → 25% +11CHA 15% → 25%+11 pts
- Q46:52Cade Cunningham makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCHA 90 – 94 DET · DET 74% → 82% +8DET 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q46:33Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 90 – 97 DET · DET 82% → 91% +9DET 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q45:19Cade Cunningham makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCHA 92 – 99 DET · DET 87% → 92% +6DET 87% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -11.5
- ML CHA +500 / DET -800
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- DET: Elo 75.3%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -533
- CHA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.0 – 115.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1313 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +27 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +193 Elo | DET 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 113.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 113.817th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 110.918th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 13–1321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–30 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.