Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Moussa DiabatePoints21
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds10
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints16
- Trendon WatfordAssists4
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–97
- Q41.0shot clock turnover89–97
- Q425.0Nets defensive team rebound89–97
- Q426.1KJ Simpson misses two point shot89–97
- Q432.0Reece Beekman out of bounds lost ball turnover89–97
- Q455.0Taj Gibson makes two point shot89–97
- Q455.0Taj Gibson offensive rebound87–97
- Q455.1Jalen Wilson blocks Taj Gibson 's 4-foot layup87–97
- Q41:10Tosan Evbuomwan lost ball turnover (Tidjane Salaun steals)87–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:21Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)CHA 17 – 16 BKN · BKN 53% → 59% +7BKN 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q14:19Trendon Watford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)CHA 22 – 21 BKN · BKN 52% → 59% +7BKN 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q14:01LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 25 – 21 BKN · CHA 41% → 48% +7CHA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q12:57Trendon Watford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)CHA 25 – 26 BKN · BKN 57% → 63% +7BKN 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q29:03Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)CHA 36 – 41 BKN · BKN 65% → 72% +7BKN 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -4.5
- ML CHA +155 / BKN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4.5
- BKN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BKN: Elo 68.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BKN -166
- CHA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.5 – 108.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1308 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −5 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +133 Elo | BKN 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 105.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −6.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 7–1728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–24 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 26–17 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 19–31 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.