Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Terry RozierPoints20
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints18
- Cameron JohnsonAssists3
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–102
- Q420.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound86–102
- Q423.0Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot86–102
- Q434.0Trendon Watford makes driving layup86–102
- Q451.2Terry Rozier bad pass (Nic Claxton steals)86–100
- Q454.1Terry Rozier offensive rebound86–100
- Q456.1Duncan Robinson misses 30-foot three point jumper86–100
- Q41:02Tyler Herro offensive rebound86–100
- Q41:03Keon Johnson blocks Tyler Herro 's 29-foot three point jumper86–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:24D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotMIA 79 – 80 BKN · BKN 34% → 48% +14BKN 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q48:47D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)MIA 81 – 83 BKN · BKN 39% → 53% +14BKN 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q47:59Tyrese Martin makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)MIA 81 – 85 BKN · BKN 54% → 64% +10BKN 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q47:02Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three point shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 84 – 87 BKN · MIA 25% → 40% +15MIA 25% → 40%+15 pts
- Q46:11Cameron Johnson makes 17-foot step back jumpshotMIA 84 – 89 BKN · BKN 62% → 72% +10BKN 62% → 72%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIA -210 / BKN +175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -186
- BKN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 107.5 – 102.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −13 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +55 Elo | MIA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 105.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −6.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 6–1728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–29 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 23–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.