Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints19
- Elfrid PaytonAssists7
- Taj GibsonRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–102
- Q48.0shot clock turnover86–102
- Q432.0Taj Gibson makes 5-foot two point shot (Elfrid Payton assists)86–102
- Q443.1Damion Baugh defensive rebound84–102
- Q445.2Trevelin Queen misses 28-foot three point jumper84–102
- Q41:04Isaiah Wong makes 26-foot three point shot (Elfrid Payton assists)84–102
- Q41:11Damion Baugh defensive rebound81–102
- Q41:13DaQuan Jeffries blocks Trevelin Queen 's 7-foot two point shot81–102
- Q41:19Trevelin Queen defensive rebound81–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:20Josh Green makes 23-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 53 – 48 ORL · CHA 30% → 39% +9CHA 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q37:59Jett Howard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CHA 53 – 51 ORL · ORL 61% → 70% +9ORL 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q35:35Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)CHA 55 – 58 ORL · ORL 74% → 81% +8ORL 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q34:21Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 57 – 61 ORL · ORL 76% → 83% +8ORL 76% → 83%+8 pts
- Q33:43Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CHA 57 – 64 ORL · ORL 83% → 89% +6ORL 83% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -12.5
- ML CHA +550 / ORL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7
- ORL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 75.4%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -578
- CHA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 95.5 – 108.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 203.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1303 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −7 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −8 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +195 Elo | ORL 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 85.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 104.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −1.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 105.929th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 16–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−7 Elo- Jonathan Isaac lower back tightness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–25 | 26–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–32 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–5 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.