Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints19
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Caris LeVertRebounds8
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints37
- Anthony BlackAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–106
- Q46.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2112–106
- Q46.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2111–106
- Q46.1Franz Wagner personal take foul110–106
- Q47.1Franz Wagner makes driving layup110–106
- Q418.0Trae Young bad pass (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope steals)110–104
- Q420.1Trae Young defensive rebound110–104
- Q423.0Paolo Banchero misses 28-foot three point jumper110–104
- Q424.0Magic Full timeout110–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:37Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 91 – 90 ORL · ATL 33% → 47% +14ATL 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q46:59Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)ATL 97 – 96 ORL · ATL 33% → 49% +16ATL 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q46:02Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ATL 99 – 99 ORL · ORL 39% → 56% +17ORL 39% → 56%+17 pts
- Q45:13Trae Young makes 30-foot three pointerATL 104 – 99 ORL · ATL 57% → 74% +17ATL 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q42:30Franz Wagner makes 29-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ATL 106 – 104 ORL · ORL 15% → 36% +21ORL 15% → 36%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ATL +195 / ORL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 55.2%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -208
- ATL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 107.0 – 113.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +2 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +36 Elo | ORL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 104.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 105.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 107.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 16–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–28 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 17–13 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.