Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints40
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Rui HachimuraRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints28
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Toumani CamaraRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–102
- Q42.0Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound110–102
- Q42.0Anfernee Simons misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot110–102
- Q45.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2110–102
- Q45.0LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2109–102
- Q45.0Deni Avdija enters the game for Jerami Grant108–102
- Q45.0Jerami Grant personal take foul108–102
- Q46.1Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound108–102
- Q49.1Austin Reaves blocks Jerami Grant 's 4-foot driving layup108–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:07Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)LAL 73 – 72 POR · POR 33% → 44% +11POR 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:49Gabe Vincent makes 28-foot three pointerLAL 76 – 72 POR · LAL 56% → 67% +11LAL 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q36.2Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)LAL 78 – 77 POR · POR 32% → 44% +12POR 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q411:34Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 81 – 77 POR · LAL 56% → 68% +12LAL 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q49:54LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 86 – 81 POR · LAL 61% → 73% +12LAL 61% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -125 / POR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- LAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 47.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.5 – 112.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | +9 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +17 Elo | POR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 109.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 114.819th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −5.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 108.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 15–1317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+9 Elo- Deandre Ayton strained left calf−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–24 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–0 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.