Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints36
- Miles BridgesAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds13
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints34
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–129
- Q43.2shot clock turnover115–129
- Q426.1Christian Braun defensive rebound115–129
- Q427.0Tidjane Salaun misses tip shot115–129
- Q433.1Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound115–129
- Q433.1Wendell Moore Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–129
- Q437.1Christian Braun makes 2-foot dunk (Michael Porter Jr. assists)115–129
- Q438.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound115–127
- Q439.2Tidjane Salaun misses dunk115–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:15Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumperCHA 91 – 92 DEN · CHA 14% → 22% +7CHA 14% → 22%+7 pts
- Q31:00Moussa Diabate makes 4-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 94 – 95 DEN · CHA 17% → 23% +6CHA 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q333.0Damion Baugh makes 1-foot two point shotCHA 96 – 97 DEN · CHA 17% → 23% +6CHA 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q323.1Zeke Nnaji makes dunkCHA 96 – 99 DEN · DEN 77% → 83% +6DEN 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q410:44Julian Strawther makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotCHA 96 – 102 DEN · DEN 82% → 89% +7DEN 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -18.5
- ML CHA +800 / DEN -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -16.5
- DEN 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 93.7%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -847
- CHA +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.5 – 123.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1310 | 1628 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +40 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +469 Elo | DEN 93.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 94.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 94.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.1 | Points scored | 121.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +5.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 19–85th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–26 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 22–20 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–34 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.