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Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast

Final/2OTTNT, truTV, HBO Max

Away

Timberwolves

44-32

140–139

at

Home

Nuggets

47-29

MIN 47%DEN 53%

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Ball Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.

DEN favored MIN favored149 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTDEN50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Timberwolves
Nuggets

Last plays

  • 2OT0.0End of Game140–139
  • 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime140–139
  • 2OT0.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound140–139
  • 2OT0.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 3 of 3140–139
  • 2OT0.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 3140–139
  • 2OT0.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 3139–139
  • 2OT0.0(00:00.1) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)138–139
  • 2OT0.0Russell Westbrook shooting foul138–139
  • 2OT7.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound138–139
  • 2OT9.1Russell Westbrook misses two point shot138–139

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. OT7.1Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)MIN 125 – 125 DEN · DEN 2% → 50% +48
  2. 2OT48.1Aaron Gordon makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 135 – 137 DEN · DEN 35% → 79% +45
  3. 2OT32.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 138 – 137 DEN · MIN 16% → 69% +53
  4. 2OT0.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 3MIN 139 – 139 DEN · MIN 0% → 49% +49
  5. 2OT0.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 3MIN 140 – 139 DEN · MIN 49% → 100% +51

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Nuggets 53%

Toss-upMiss
MIN 47%DEN 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
DEN -1.5
ML MIN +105 / DEN -125
Pre-line forecast
DEN 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -1
DEN 46%
Ratings vs. market
−6.9 pts
DEN: Elo 46.3%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
DEN -114
MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 113.5 – 115.0 DEN
Posted spread, posted total 228.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINDENWhy
Team rating16321602Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+27−4MIN: Missing Naz Reid −10, Donte DiVincenzo −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIN +26 EloMIN 53.7%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 52.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 52.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDEN 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatDEN
17th of 30113.8Points scored120.93rd of 30
6th of 30109.2Points allowed116.723rd of 30
6th of 30+4.6Margin+4.28th of 30
10th of 30114.0Offense rating117.93rd of 30
6th of 30109.4Defense rating113.822nd of 30
22nd of 3099.1Pace101.76th of 30
5th of 307–3Last 105–513th of 30
7th of 3020–16Road vs home25–128th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Timberwolves

+27 Elo
  • Naz Reid suspended by league−10 Elo
  • Donte DiVincenzo suspended by league−3 Elo

Nuggets

−4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TimberwolvesNuggets
15001550160016501700NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINDEN
Against the spread35–4035–40
Last 106–43–7
Favorite23–3324–31
Underdog12–711–9
Overs–unders43–3244–31
Overs–unders, last 107–37–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 9–5 DEN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.