Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–95
- Q45.1Josh Minott defensive rebound115–95
- Q48.1Hunter Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper115–95
- Q415.1Luka Garza makes 27-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)115–95
- Q433.0PJ Hall makes 8-foot two point shot112–95
- Q445.1PJ Hall defensive rebound112–93
- Q447.0Luka Garza misses driving floating jump shot112–93
- Q41:03Rob Dillingham defensive rebound112–93
- Q41:07Trey Alexander misses 16-foot pullup jump shot112–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:39Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 46 – 39 DEN · MIN 58% → 66% +8MIN 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q39:30Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)MIN 65 – 57 DEN · MIN 63% → 71% +8MIN 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q38:37Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 68 – 59 DEN · MIN 66% → 75% +8MIN 66% → 75%+8 pts
- Q37:54Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 71 – 61 DEN · MIN 70% → 78% +8MIN 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q37:12Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 73 – 64 DEN · DEN 17% → 25% +7DEN 17% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML MIN +105 / DEN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.0 – 117.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +52 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +48 Elo | DEN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 121.53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 116.624th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +4.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 113.622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 22–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 23–25 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 37–29 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–5 DEN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.
- Jan 25DEN 104 @ MIN 133Picked DEN 59%Miss
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit
- May 14MIN 97 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- May 12DEN 115 @ MIN 107PlayoffsPicked MIN 56%Miss
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss