Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints30
- Paul GeorgeAssists6
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds7
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints23
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–126
- Q423.1Ricky Council IV makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)112–126
- Q435.1Rob Dillingham makes 1-foot two point shot109–126
- Q443.2Jared Butler makes 9-foot two point shot (Adem Bona assists)109–124
- Q447.2Luka Garza bad pass (Adem Bona steals)107–124
- Q41:01Alex Reese makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)107–124
- Q41:15Leonard Miller makes 3-foot two point shot104–124
- Q41:30Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2104–122
- Q41:3076ers offensive team rebound103–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:41Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three pointerPHI 69 – 68 MIN · PHI 20% → 28% +8PHI 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q35:20Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)PHI 69 – 71 MIN · MIN 72% → 80% +8MIN 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q30.0Mike Conley makes 35-foot three point shotPHI 80 – 83 MIN · MIN 71% → 80% +10MIN 71% → 80%+10 pts
- Q411:47Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)PHI 80 – 86 MIN · MIN 80% → 88% +8MIN 80% → 88%+8 pts
- Q411:09Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)PHI 82 – 89 MIN · MIN 83% → 90% +7MIN 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -13.5
- ML PHI +600 / MIN -900
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12.5
- MIN 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 88.6%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -630
- PHI +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 103.5 – 117.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | +1 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +356 Elo | MIN 88.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 81.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 112.120th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | +3.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 112.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 99.124th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 16–1418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–38 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 16–21 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 34–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.