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Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalESPN, NBC Sports Phil, MSG

Away

76ers

20-38

105–110

at

Home

Knicks

38-20

PHI 27%NY 73%

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Madison Square Garden · ESPN, NBC Sports Phil, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored PHI favored118 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%PHI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

76ers
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game105–110
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
  • Q410.2Josh Hart defensive rebound105–110
  • Q413.1Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot105–110
  • Q421.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
  • Q421.0Miles McBride enters the game for Precious Achiuwa105–109
  • Q421.0Knicks offensive team rebound105–109
  • Q421.0Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2105–109
  • Q421.0Justin Edwards personal foul105–109
  • Q422.2Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–109

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q44:38Paul George makes 23-foot three point shot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 95 – 96 NY · PHI 19% → 36% +17
  2. Q43:22Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andre Drummond assists)PHI 100 – 98 NY · PHI 36% → 59% +23
  3. Q42:42Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 102 – 98 NY · PHI 61% → 77% +15
  4. Q41:59Jalen Brunson makes layupPHI 102 – 102 NY · NY 35% → 55% +20
  5. Q41:28Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 102 – 105 NY · NY 54% → 84% +30

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 73%

StrongHit
PHI 27%NY 73%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
NY -8.5
ML PHI +260 / NY -320
Pre-line forecast
NY 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -7
NY 76%
Ratings vs. market
+2.5 pts
NY: Elo 75.8%, market 73.3%
Fair odds
NY -274
PHI +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 109.5 – 118.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 227.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYWhy
Team rating13861565Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−43−60PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −58 (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +198 EloNY 75.8%
Market-implied ratingsNY 69.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 70.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 73.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNY
26th of 30108.9Points scored117.94th of 30
17th of 30113.5Points allowed113.114th of 30
24th of 30−4.6Margin+4.86th of 30
23rd of 30109.9Offense rating118.13rd of 30
25th of 30114.5Defense rating113.321st of 30
27th of 3098.4Pace99.025th of 30
30th of 301–9Last 106–49th of 30
21st of 3010–17Road vs home20–108th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

76ers

−43 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

−60 Elo
  • Karl-Anthony Towns left knee injury−58 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersKnicks
13501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHINY
Against the spread20–3727–30
Last 101–93–7
Favorite6–1725–24
Underdog14–202–6
Overs–unders32–2534–23
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 3–9 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.