Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints17
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–104
- Q416.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 10-foot two point shot124–104
- Q434.1Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Payton Pritchard124–102
- Q434.1Adem Bona enters the game for Guerschon Yabusele124–102
- Q434.1Celtics Full timeout124–102
- Q434.1shot clock turnover124–102
- Q457.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound124–102
- Q459.2Guerschon Yabusele misses 26-foot three point jumper124–102
- Q41:02Andre Drummond offensive rebound124–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Paul George makes 29-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)BOS 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 28% → 33% +5PHI 28% → 33%+5 pts
- Q19:48Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 9 – 5 PHI · BOS 70% → 76% +5BOS 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q15:06Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointer (Al Horford assists)BOS 18 – 15 PHI · BOS 68% → 73% +6BOS 68% → 73%+6 pts
- Q12:54Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 27 – 22 PHI · BOS 71% → 77% +6BOS 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q11:34Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 33 – 26 PHI · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -250 / PHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -221
- PHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.0 – 109.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1661 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +87 | BOS: Usual rotation · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 109.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 112.915th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −3.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 110.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–6 | Road vs home | 10–1724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–31 | 20–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.