Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Andrew WigginsAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–85
- Q414.1shot clock turnover103–85
- Q439.1Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)103–85
- Q443.1Terry Rozier defensive rebound103–82
- Q446.0Baylor Scheierman misses 24-foot three point jumper103–82
- Q41:05Pelle Larsson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)103–82
- Q41:16Alec Burks enters the game for Andrew Wiggins103–79
- Q41:16Neemias Queta turnover103–79
- Q41:16Neemias Queta offensive foul103–79
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:31Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)BOS 9 – 18 MIA · MIA 41% → 48% +7MIA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q11:15Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 16 – 24 MIA · BOS 45% → 52% +7BOS 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q210:52Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point shot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 23 – 24 MIA · BOS 61% → 68% +7BOS 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q39:14Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)BOS 54 – 49 MIA · MIA 15% → 21% +6MIA 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q38:50Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 57 – 49 MIA · BOS 79% → 85% +6BOS 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -320 / MIA +250
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 75.3%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -267
- MIA +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.5 – 101.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −46 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −27 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +194 Elo | BOS 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 111.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 111.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–6 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+2 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee injury−23 Elo
Heat
−46 Elo- Tyler Herro stomach illness−27 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–31 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–1 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit
- Apr 24MIA 111 @ BOS 101PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 21MIA 94 @ BOS 114PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Feb 11BOS 110 @ MIA 106Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Jan 25BOS 143 @ MIA 110Picked BOS 69%Hit