San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints23
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
- Q49.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound103–116
- Q411.1Blake Wesley misses 25-foot three point jumper103–116
- Q425.1Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Keldon Johnson103–116
- Q425.1Malaki Branham enters the game for Devin Vassell103–116
- Q425.1Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Stephon Castle103–116
- Q425.1Blake Wesley enters the game for De'Aaron Fox103–116
- Q425.1Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Victor Wembanyama103–116
- Q425.1Neemias Queta enters the game for Al Horford103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:55Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)SA 6 – 7 BOS · BOS 68% → 74% +6BOS 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q18:30Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)SA 6 – 10 BOS · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:29Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 15 – 16 BOS · SA 22% → 27% +5SA 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q15:14Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 15 – 19 BOS · BOS 73% → 78% +5BOS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q49:50Kristaps Porzingis makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)SA 87 – 98 BOS · BOS 88% → 94% +5BOS 88% → 94%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML SA +250 / BOS -315
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.3%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -266
- SA +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | −4 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +176 Elo | BOS 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 117.26th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 108.24th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +9.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 108.45th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 16–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−4 Elo- Jaylen Brown sore right knee−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–27 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.