Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints30
- Jared ButlerAssists9
- Quentin GrimesRebounds9
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints22
- D'Angelo RussellAssists4
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–100
- Q41.1Ziaire Williams defensive rebound96–100
- Q44.0Cameron Johnson blocks Justin Edwards's three point step back jumpshot96–100
- Q48.1Quentin Grimes offensive rebound96–100
- Q412.2Quentin Grimes misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot96–100
- Q416.0Guerschon Yabusele enters the game for Adem Bona96–100
- Q416.0Ziaire Williams enters the game for D'Angelo Russell96–100
- Q416.0D'Angelo Russell turnover96–100
- Q416.0D'Angelo Russell offensive foul96–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q226.1Quentin Grimes makes 22-foot three point shot (Jared Butler assists)PHI 49 – 53 BKN · PHI 28% → 36% +8PHI 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q38:30Quentin Grimes makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)PHI 58 – 57 BKN · PHI 42% → 51% +9PHI 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q31:08D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)PHI 64 – 74 BKN · BKN 77% → 85% +8BKN 77% → 85%+8 pts
- Q43:49Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 85 – 91 BKN · PHI 5% → 13% +8PHI 5% → 13%+8 pts
- Q43:14Jalen Wilson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)PHI 85 – 94 BKN · BKN 89% → 97% +8BKN 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML PHI +105 / BKN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4
- BKN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.0 pts
- BKN: Elo 66.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 104.0 – 105.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −68 | −4 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −53 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +117 Elo | BKN 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 111.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −6.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 113.421st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 8–1726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−68 Elo- Tyrese Maxey right knee contusion−53 Elo
Nets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–33 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–23 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.