Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints33
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists5
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints27
- Joel EmbiidAssists4
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)106–103
- Q41.1Quentin Grimes offensive rebound106–103
- Q41.1Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–103
- Q45.176ers Full timeout106–103
- Q45.1Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2106–103
- Q45.1Raptors offensive team rebound105–103
- Q45.1Gradey Dick misses free throw 1 of 2105–103
- Q45.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul105–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:59Ja'Kobe Walter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 93 – 90 PHI · TOR 37% → 53% +16TOR 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q43:32Gradey Dick makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 99 – 96 PHI · TOR 41% → 63% +23TOR 41% → 63%+23 pts
- Q42:20Paul George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)TOR 101 – 100 PHI · PHI 23% → 48% +26PHI 23% → 48%+26 pts
- Q41:49Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 103 – 103 PHI · PHI 26% → 57% +30PHI 26% → 57%+30 pts
- Q41:32Ochai Agbaji makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 105 – 103 PHI · TOR 44% → 66% +23TOR 44% → 66%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -10.5
- ML TOR +400 / PHI -600
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 72.8%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.5 – 118.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +72 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone and PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +171 Elo | PHI 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.7 | Points scored | 109.525th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−5.8 | Margin | −3.823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–21 | Road vs home | 10–1624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–21 | 20–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.