Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints20
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints19
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Jock LandaleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–94
- Q421.1Cam Whitmore defensive rebound87–94
- Q423.1Scottie Barnes misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot87–94
- Q427.1Aaron Holiday enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate87–94
- Q427.1Raptors Full timeout87–94
- Q427.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 287–94
- Q427.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jock Landale87–93
- Q427.1Rockets offensive team rebound87–93
- Q427.1Jalen Green misses free throw 1 of 287–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:00Orlando Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 61 – 56 HOU · TOR 43% → 55% +11TOR 43% → 55%+11 pts
- Q411:47Jae'Sean Tate makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)TOR 63 – 61 HOU · HOU 42% → 55% +13HOU 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q49:23Amen Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Whitmore assists)TOR 69 – 70 HOU · HOU 52% → 66% +14HOU 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q45:16Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 76 – 80 HOU · TOR 9% → 20% +10TOR 9% → 20%+10 pts
- Q44:54Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 76 – 83 HOU · HOU 81% → 91% +11HOU 81% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML TOR +280 / HOU -360
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.7%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -297
- TOR +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −7 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −23 · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −15, Fred VanVleet −9, Steven Adams −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +128 Elo | HOU 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.2 | Points scored | 113.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 109.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 111.914th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–20 | Road vs home | 15–88th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−19 Elo- Jakob Poeltl right hip−23 Elo
Rockets
−7 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−15 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−9 Elo
- Steven Adams left ankle injury−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–21 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.