Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Jalen GreenAssists6
- Steven AdamsRebounds12
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints26
- Anthony DavisAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–116
- Q41.0shot clock turnover105–116
- Q423.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound105–116
- Q426.0Dillon Brooks misses 23-foot three point jumper105–116
- Q432.1Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2105–116
- Q432.1Max Christie makes free throw 1 of 2105–115
- Q432.1Dillon Brooks personal take foul105–114
- Q432.1Alperen Sengun makes dunk (Amen Thompson assists)105–114
- Q437.0Steven Adams enters the game for Tari Eason103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:05Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 65 – 69 DAL · HOU 24% → 32% +8HOU 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q34:19Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)HOU 71 – 76 DAL · DAL 62% → 71% +10DAL 62% → 71%+10 pts
- Q33:48Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)HOU 71 – 79 DAL · DAL 72% → 80% +8DAL 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q31:49Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 77 – 86 DAL · DAL 76% → 84% +8DAL 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q42:43Jalen Green makes 13-foot step back jumpshotHOU 100 – 104 DAL · HOU 9% → 18% +9HOU 9% → 18%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML HOU +130 / DAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- HOU +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +42 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 113.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +2.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 114.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 14–1014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–22 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–23 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.