Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists19
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints44
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game148–149
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime148–149
- OT0.0Hawks offensive team rebound148–149
- OT0.1Georges Niang misses 22-foot three point jumper148–149
- OT1.2Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound148–149
- OT2.2Mikal Bridges blocks Trae Young 's 8-foot driving floating jump shot148–149
- OT11.0Georges Niang enters the game for Terance Mann148–149
- OT11.0Trae Young enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher148–149
- OT11.0Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson148–149
- OT11.0Hawks Full timeout148–149
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:33Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three point jumperATL 127 – 131 NY · NY 66% → 90% +24NY 66% → 90%+24 pts
- Q42.2Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 137 – 137 NY · ATL 3% → 49% +46ATL 3% → 49%+46 pts
- OT24.0Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 147 – 147 NY · ATL 27% → 48% +21ATL 27% → 48%+21 pts
- OT24.0Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 148 – 147 NY · ATL 48% → 70% +22ATL 48% → 70%+22 pts
- OT11.1Jalen Brunson makes 19-foot pullup jump shotATL 148 – 149 NY · NY 21% → 81% +60NY 21% → 81%+60 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML ATL +260 / NY -330
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NY: Elo 66.2%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -276
- ATL +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.0 – 125.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +11 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing OG Anunoby −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +117 Elo | NY 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 117.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 111.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.4 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 118.82nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 18–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+11 Elo- OG Anunoby sprained right foot−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–28 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 25–22 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–23 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.