Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints27
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds16
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists12
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game111–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime111–113
- OT0.0Bulls offensive team rebound111–113
- OT0.1Nikola Vucevic misses 8-foot two point shot111–113
- OT8.1Kevin Huerter enters the game for Matas Buzelis111–113
- OT8.1Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson111–113
- OT8.1Delon Wright enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns111–113
- OT8.1Bulls Full timeout111–113
- OT8.1Matas Buzelis defensive rebound111–113
- OT12.1Jalen Brunson misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:25Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CHI 98 – 100 NY · NY 48% → 74% +26NY 48% → 74%+26 pts
- Q41:29Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 101 – 100 NY · CHI 23% → 56% +33CHI 23% → 56%+33 pts
- Q41:12Precious Achiuwa makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)CHI 101 – 102 NY · NY 42% → 67% +26NY 42% → 67%+26 pts
- Q450.1Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 104 – 102 NY · CHI 31% → 75% +44CHI 31% → 75%+44 pts
- Q429.0Jalen Brunson makes 15-foot step back jumpshotCHI 104 – 104 NY · NY 17% → 53% +36NY 17% → 53%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML CHI +340 / NY -450
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9.5
- NY 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- NY: Elo 82.4%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -360
- CHI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.0 – 127.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +4 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing OG Anunoby −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +269 Elo | NY 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 83.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 118.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 112.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.7 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.7 | Pace | 98.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 19–106th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 Elo- OG Anunoby sprained right foot−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–30 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 19–22 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.