Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints23
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–110
- Q46.1shot clock turnover128–110
- Q430.1shot clock turnover128–110
- Q453.0Tobias Harris defensive rebound128–110
- Q454.1Ayo Dosunmu misses 26-foot three point jumper128–110
- Q41:06Jalen Duren makes dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)128–110
- Q41:09Cade Cunningham defensive rebound126–110
- Q41:11Coby White misses driving dunk126–110
- Q41:18Ausar Thompson makes dunk (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)126–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:05Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 35 – 32 CHI · DET 64% → 71% +7DET 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q210:10Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)DET 37 – 37 CHI · CHI 29% → 36% +7CHI 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q27:54Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 42 – 44 CHI · DET 51% → 59% +8DET 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q25:54Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerDET 50 – 48 CHI · DET 61% → 68% +7DET 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q22:43Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)DET 57 – 55 CHI · CHI 25% → 32% +7CHI 25% → 32%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -225 / CHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 70.4%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -201
- CHI +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 122.0 – 115.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | −33 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +150 Elo | DET 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 120.629th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −4.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 110.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 10–1825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–25 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 26–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.