Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints12
- Josh GiddeyAssists4
- Nikola VucevicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–92
- Q420.0shot clock turnover132–92
- Q445.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes free throw 1 of 1132–92
- Q445.1Lindy Waters III shooting foul132–91
- Q445.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot132–91
- Q454.1Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2132–89
- Q454.1Pistons offensive team rebound131–89
- Q454.1Paul Reed misses free throw 1 of 2131–89
- Q454.1Zach Collins shooting foul131–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Tobias Harris makes 14-foot jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 2 – 0 CHI · DET 64% → 67% +4DET 64% → 67%+4 pts
- Q110:51Ausar Thompson makes dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 4 – 0 CHI · DET 67% → 71% +4DET 67% → 71%+4 pts
- Q13:02Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointerDET 24 – 12 CHI · DET 80% → 84% +5DET 80% → 84%+5 pts
- Q12:04Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three pointer (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 27 – 16 CHI · DET 78% → 83% +5DET 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q11:44Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 30 – 16 CHI · DET 83% → 87% +4DET 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML DET -195 / CHI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- DET: Elo 63.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 121.5 – 116.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −21 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +95 Elo | DET 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 120.329th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −3.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 111.216th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 114.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 10–1724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–25 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.