New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints24
- Josh HartAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–118
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound105–118
- Q40.0Mikal Bridges misses 32-foot three point jumper105–118
- Q41.1shot clock turnover105–118
- Q426.0Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)105–118
- Q433.2shot clock turnover102–118
- Q457.2Mikal Bridges makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)102–118
- Q41:01Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound100–118
- Q41:02Jaylen Brown misses 27-foot three point jumper100–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q320.2Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three pointerNY 82 – 89 BOS · NY 9% → 15% +6NY 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q411:32Karl-Anthony Towns makes 31-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 85 – 89 BOS · NY 15% → 23% +9NY 15% → 23%+9 pts
- Q411:04Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)NY 85 – 92 BOS · BOS 77% → 85% +9BOS 77% → 85%+9 pts
- Q410:33Karl-Anthony Towns makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 87 – 92 BOS · NY 14% → 20% +6NY 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q410:14Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)NY 87 – 95 BOS · BOS 80% → 88% +8BOS 80% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML NY +260 / BOS -320
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.3%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -274
- NY +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.0 – 119.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1672 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +1 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +141 Elo | BOS 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 108.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +9.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 117.54th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 108.25th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 17–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–29 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–22 | 26–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–6 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.