New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Mikal BridgesAssists5
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Max StrusAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–142
- Q40.2Pacome Dadiet makes 19-foot jumper (Matt Ryan assists)105–142
- Q417.1Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound103–142
- Q420.1Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–142
- Q445.0Delon Wright makes 1-foot layup (Matt Ryan assists)103–142
- Q41:02Matt Ryan defensive rebound101–142
- Q41:04Jaylon Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper101–142
- Q41:07Craig Porter Jr. offensive rebound101–142
- Q41:09Tristan Thompson misses 12-foot two point shot101–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:46Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 5 – 0 CLE · NY 33% → 39% +6NY 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q110:18Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Max Strus assists)NY 5 – 2 CLE · CLE 61% → 65% +4CLE 61% → 65%+4 pts
- Q16:37Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerNY 11 – 17 CLE · CLE 75% → 80% +5CLE 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:16Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point shot (Evan Mobley assists)NY 11 – 20 CLE · CLE 80% → 85% +4CLE 80% → 85%+4 pts
- Q210:59Evan Mobley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)NY 34 – 46 CLE · CLE 85% → 89% +4CLE 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML NY +230 / CLE -285
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.9%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -244
- NY +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 117.0 – 124.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +31 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +130 Elo | CLE 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 122.52nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 111.710th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +10.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 120.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 109.68th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 25–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–28 | 36–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 33–17 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–22 | 36–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.