Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints21
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds15
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–108
- Q44.0Tristan Thompson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Craig Porter Jr. assists)131–108
- Q418.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound129–108
- Q419.0Jonathan Mogbo misses tip shot129–108
- Q420.0Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound129–108
- Q421.0Jamison Battle misses 23-foot three point jumper129–108
- Q441.0Jaylon Tyson makes layup (Craig Porter Jr. assists)129–108
- Q456.1Ochai Agbaji makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamison Battle assists)127–108
- Q41:03Jamison Battle defensive rebound127–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Max Strus makes 28-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 4 – 0 TOR · CLE 86% → 89% +3CLE 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q111:12RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)CLE 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 11% → 14% +3TOR 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q110:35Jarrett Allen makes alley oop dunk shot (Max Strus assists)CLE 6 – 5 TOR · CLE 84% → 86% +2CLE 84% → 86%+2 pts
- Q19:37Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 11 – 5 TOR · CLE 88% → 91% +3CLE 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q18:53Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 14 – 7 TOR · CLE 89% → 92% +3CLE 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -800 / TOR +550
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 83.3%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -578
- TOR +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 124.5 – 112.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1653 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | +6 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +279 Elo | CLE 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 110.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 116.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.5 | Margin | −5.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 108.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 114.225th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–6 | Road vs home | 12–1623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–19 | 33–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–17 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–18 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–1 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.