Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds20
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints18
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–97
- Q415.0Tyrese Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)110–97
- Q424.2Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound110–94
- Q427.1Jaylon Tyson misses 5-foot two point shot110–94
- Q448.1Killian Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2110–94
- Q448.1Nets offensive team rebound110–93
- Q448.1Killian Hayes misses free throw 1 of 2110–93
- Q448.1Jaylon Tyson personal foul110–93
- Q459.1Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 7-foot two point shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)110–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:10Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three pointer (D'Angelo Russell assists)CLE 53 – 60 BKN · BKN 37% → 46% +9BKN 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q35:36Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)CLE 63 – 69 BKN · BKN 37% → 47% +10BKN 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q35:21Jarrett Allen makes tip shotCLE 65 – 69 BKN · CLE 53% → 59% +7CLE 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q35:03Jarrett Allen makes 8-foot two point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 67 – 69 BKN · CLE 59% → 66% +7CLE 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q34:02Darius Garland makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 72 – 69 BKN · CLE 71% → 80% +8CLE 71% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -750 / BKN +475
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 80.1%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -507
- BKN +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.0 – 106.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | 0 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +242 Elo | CLE 80.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 105.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 111.08th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.8 | Margin | −6.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 113.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–6 | Road vs home | 9–1725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
0 Elo- Cam Thomas strained left hamstring−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–19 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–17 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–18 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–1 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.