Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds16
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points19
- Jared ButlerAssists5
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–110
- Q40.1shot clock turnover142–110
- Q423.0Tre Jones defensive rebound142–110
- Q426.1David Roddy misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot142–110
- Q433.1David Roddy defensive rebound142–110
- Q436.0Talen Horton-Tucker misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot142–110
- Q452.1Lonnie Walker IV makes driving layup (Jared Butler assists)142–110
- Q41:04Adem Bona defensive rebound142–108
- Q41:04Talen Horton-Tucker misses 6-foot two point shot142–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 16 – 10 PHI · CHI 39% → 45% +6CHI 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q16:44Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three pointer (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 21 – 12 PHI · CHI 46% → 52% +7CHI 46% → 52%+7 pts
- Q15:09Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)CHI 23 – 21 PHI · PHI 56% → 62% +7PHI 56% → 62%+7 pts
- Q138.1Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 36 – 28 PHI · CHI 46% → 53% +7CHI 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q210:29Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Coby White assists)CHI 44 – 32 PHI · CHI 56% → 63% +7CHI 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML CHI +200 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.0 – 119.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −19 | CHI: Missing Nikola Vucevic −26 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +115 Elo | PHI 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 108.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 113.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 114.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 10–1924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−41 Elo- Nikola Vucevic right calf−26 Elo
76ers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–30 | 20–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 21–22 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.