Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints24
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–117
- Q40.1Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2121–117
- Q40.1Matas Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 2121–116
- Q40.1Grayson Allen shooting foul121–115
- Q41.1Lonzo Ball offensive rebound121–115
- Q44.1Matas Buzelis misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot121–115
- Q47.1Josh Giddey offensive rebound121–115
- Q410.1Josh Giddey misses driving floating jump shot121–115
- Q413.1Royce O'Neale enters the game for Nick Richards121–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q330.1Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 93 – 88 CHI · PHX 65% → 76% +11PHX 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q46:06Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 107 – 101 CHI · PHX 71% → 84% +13PHX 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q44:35Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)PHX 109 – 106 CHI · CHI 13% → 27% +14CHI 13% → 27%+14 pts
- Q43:47Bradley Beal makes 18-foot step back jumpshotPHX 111 – 108 CHI · PHX 61% → 74% +13PHX 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q42:22Coby White makes two point shotPHX 111 – 110 CHI · CHI 22% → 38% +16CHI 22% → 38%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML PHX -200 / CHI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 59.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- CHI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 123.0 – 117.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −15 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +66 Elo | PHX 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 115.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 120.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −4.623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 110.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 114.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 10–1925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–35 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–14 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.