Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints37
- Kevin DurantAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints25
- Amen ThompsonAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–119
- Q412.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound111–119
- Q414.1TyTy Washington Jr. misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot111–119
- Q420.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q420.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q420.1Royce O'Neale personal take foul111–117
- Q422.0Alperen Sengun defensive rebound111–117
- Q424.1Kevin Durant misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot111–117
- Q430.1Dillon Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2111–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:58Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 95 – 90 HOU · PHX 46% → 59% +14PHX 46% → 59%+14 pts
- Q44:52Bol Bol makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)PHX 104 – 104 HOU · PHX 23% → 41% +17PHX 23% → 41%+17 pts
- Q44:01Jalen Green makes driving layupPHX 104 – 106 HOU · HOU 58% → 72% +13HOU 58% → 72%+13 pts
- Q43:28Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 104 – 109 HOU · HOU 72% → 88% +16HOU 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q42:13Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)PHX 106 – 112 HOU · HOU 81% → 95% +13HOU 81% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML PHX +315 / HOU -400
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7.5
- HOU 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 76.8%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -332
- PHX +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 105.0 – 114.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −82 | −5 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −8 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +208 Elo | HOU 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 112.917th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 108.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−5 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–34 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 6–14 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.