Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Royce O'NealePoints27
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Bradley BealRebounds9
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Stephon CastleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q45.1De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound109–120
- Q47.1Royce O'Neale misses 27-foot three point jumper109–120
- Q426.1shot clock turnover109–120
- Q449.0Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound109–120
- Q451.1Grayson Allen misses 29-foot three point jumper109–120
- Q459.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q459.1Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2109–119
- Q459.1Bradley Beal personal foul109–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:55Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 93 – 98 SA · PHX 19% → 30% +11PHX 19% → 30%+11 pts
- Q48:09Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 96 – 98 SA · PHX 29% → 43% +14PHX 29% → 43%+14 pts
- Q47:29Devin Booker makes 1-foot two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 98 – 100 SA · PHX 32% → 42% +10PHX 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q47:18Keldon Johnson makes tip shotPHX 98 – 102 SA · SA 58% → 68% +10SA 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q44:37Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 101 – 107 SA · PHX 7% → 17% +10PHX 7% → 17%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -145 / SA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- PHX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 48.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -133
- SA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 120.5 – 118.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −4 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +11 Elo | SA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 113.016th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 114.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–34 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 7–14 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.