Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints23
- Trendon WatfordAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)105–103
- Q40.1Nic Claxton makes tip shot105–103
- Q41.1Nic Claxton offensive rebound103–103
- Q41.1Keon Johnson misses 24-foot three point jumper103–103
- Q423.0Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point shot (Paul George assists)103–103
- Q427.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound103–100
- Q431.0Keon Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper103–100
- Q452.0Keon Johnson defensive rebound103–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:11Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)BKN 94 – 95 PHI · PHI 47% → 67% +21PHI 47% → 67%+21 pts
- Q42:56Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Quentin Grimes assists)BKN 97 – 100 PHI · PHI 59% → 80% +22PHI 59% → 80%+22 pts
- Q41:49Keon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)BKN 102 – 100 PHI · BKN 33% → 64% +31BKN 33% → 64%+31 pts
- Q423.0Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point shot (Paul George assists)BKN 103 – 103 PHI · PHI 5% → 53% +48PHI 5% → 53%+48 pts
- Q40.1Nic Claxton makes tip shotBKN 105 – 103 PHI · BKN 50% → 100% +50BKN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -11.5
- ML BKN +425 / PHI -650
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -455
- BKN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 112.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +65 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −24 · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +137 Elo | PHI 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.9 | Points scored | 109.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 113.116th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−6.1 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 110.123rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 114.224th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 10–1824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−28 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−24 Elo
76ers
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–25 | 20–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.