Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints27
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds11
Jazz- John CollinsPoints29
- Isaiah CollierAssists14
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–117
- Q40.0Keyonte George defensive rebound116–117
- Q40.0Donte DiVincenzo misses driving layup116–117
- Q49.1Timberwolves Full timeout116–117
- Q49.1Walker Kessler makes 3-foot dunk (John Collins assists)116–117
- Q426.2KJ Martin defensive rebound116–115
- Q428.2Jaden McDaniels misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot116–115
- Q444.1KJ Martin enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh116–115
- Q444.1Brice Sensabaugh turnover116–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:58Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)MIN 100 – 100 UTAH · MIN 40% → 55% +15MIN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q47:12Kyle Filipowski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Johnny Juzang assists)MIN 102 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 51% +16UTAH 35% → 51%+16 pts
- Q42:08Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 17-foot pullup jump shotMIN 113 – 114 UTAH · MIN 25% → 43% +18MIN 25% → 43%+18 pts
- Q41:31Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 116 – 115 UTAH · MIN 30% → 64% +34MIN 30% → 64%+34 pts
- Q49.1Walker Kessler makes 3-foot dunk (John Collins assists)MIN 116 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 82% +65UTAH 17% → 82%+65 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -180 / UTAH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- UTAH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −77 | −21 | MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −43 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 112.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 119.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −7.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 117.130th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 7–2229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−77 Elo- Anthony Edwards suspended by league−43 Elo
Jazz
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–34 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–27 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–0 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.