Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints27
- Jalen GreenAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints30
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–124
- Q41.1Cody Williams defensive rebound115–124
- Q41.1Jeff Green misses 23-foot three point jumper115–124
- Q44.0Rockets offensive team rebound115–124
- Q46.1Jabari Smith Jr. misses 28-foot three point jumper115–124
- Q48.1Rockets Full timeout115–124
- Q48.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2115–124
- Q48.1Jazz offensive team rebound115–123
- Q48.1Isaiah Collier misses free throw 1 of 2115–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:18Keyonte George makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 97 – 98 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 44% +13UTAH 30% → 44%+13 pts
- Q47:57Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Johnny Juzang assists)HOU 98 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 65% +15UTAH 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q46:51Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 101 – 105 UTAH · HOU 23% → 38% +14HOU 23% → 38%+14 pts
- Q46:24Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)HOU 101 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 63% → 78% +15UTAH 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q44:22Amen Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 107 – 112 UTAH · HOU 12% → 25% +13HOU 12% → 25%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML HOU -330 / UTAH +265
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.7%, market 73.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -280
- UTAH +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.5 – 110.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −45 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −16, Fred VanVleet −8, Steven Adams −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Collin Sexton −26 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +129 Elo | HOU 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 73.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 112.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 119.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −7.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 117.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 6–2029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−19 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−16 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−8 Elo
- Steven Adams left ankle−2 Elo
Jazz
−45 Elo- Collin Sexton left ankle sprain−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–26 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.