Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints21
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Jazz- John CollinsPoints26
- Isaiah CollierAssists12
- Walker KesslerRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–107
- Q423.1Dillon Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)130–107
- Q438.1Dillon Jones defensive rebound127–107
- Q441.1KJ Martin misses 25-foot three point jumper127–107
- Q442.1Jordan Clarkson offensive rebound127–107
- Q445.1Keyonte George misses 22-foot three point jumper127–107
- Q455.2Branden Carlson lost ball turnover (Walker Kessler steals)127–107
- Q41:17KJ Martin makes 1-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)127–107
- Q41:26Branden Carlson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Jones assists)127–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 3 – 0 UTAH · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q18:58Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 10 – 8 UTAH · UTAH 7% → 9% +2UTAH 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q210:32Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 34 – 27 UTAH · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q28:31Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 39 – 31 UTAH · OKC 91% → 94% +3OKC 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q27:05Isaiah Joe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 44 – 35 UTAH · OKC 92% → 94% +3OKC 92% → 94%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML OKC -1600 / UTAH +800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.6%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -847
- UTAH +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 124.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1711 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −9 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +309 Elo | OKC 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 86.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 112.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.4 | Margin | −7.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.3 | Defense rating | 117.129th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–7 | Road vs home | 6–1929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–20 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–19 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–1 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.