Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints27
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–115
- Q414.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound101–115
- Q417.0Bam Adebayo misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot101–115
- Q426.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound101–115
- Q430.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot101–115
- Q449.0Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound101–115
- Q451.0Alec Burks misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot101–115
- Q41:01Luguentz Dort makes 13-foot jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)101–115
- Q41:17Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound101–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:41Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 82 – 74 OKC · OKC 32% → 43% +11OKC 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q38.1Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 93 – 83 OKC · MIA 58% → 69% +12MIA 58% → 69%+12 pts
- Q411:30Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIA 93 – 86 OKC · OKC 29% → 41% +12OKC 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q411:07Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 93 – 89 OKC · OKC 40% → 53% +13OKC 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:32Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 93 – 96 OKC · OKC 68% → 79% +11OKC 68% → 79%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML MIA +550 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13.5
- OKC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 89.7%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -578
- MIA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.0 – 117.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1734 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +51 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +376 Elo | OKC 89.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 117.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 104.61st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +12.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 115.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 103.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 24–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–31 | 34–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 33–18 |
| Underdog | 8–14 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.