New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints23
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–137
- Q47.2Karlo Matkovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Antonio Reeves assists)101–137
- Q419.0shot clock turnover98–137
- Q441.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound98–137
- Q445.0Jamal Cain misses 27-foot three point jumper98–137
- Q452.0Dillon Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Ducas assists)98–137
- Q452.1Jamal Cain lost ball turnover (Alex Ducas steals)98–134
- Q453.0Jamal Cain defensive rebound98–134
- Q458.1Dillon Jones misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)NO 2 – 3 OKC · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:19Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three pointerNO 2 – 6 OKC · OKC 91% → 93% +2OKC 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q14:07Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotNO 10 – 15 OKC · NO 5% → 7% +2NO 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q12:49Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)NO 15 – 20 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q11:43Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 17 – 25 OKC · OKC 93% → 95% +2OKC 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML NO +900 / OKC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -18
- OKC 95%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 94.9%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -941
- NO +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.0 – 124.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1732 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +67 | NO: Missing CJ McCollum −20 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +506 Elo | OKC 94.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 92.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 92.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.2 | Points scored | 117.16th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 104.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +12.41st of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 115.36th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 103.11st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 304–22 | Road vs home | 23–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−15 Elo- CJ McCollum personal−20 Elo
Thunder
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–30 | 33–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 32–18 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–8 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 7OKC 119 @ NO 109Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit
- Apr 24NO 92 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 21NO 92 @ OKC 94PlayoffsPicked OKC 65%Hit
- Mar 26OKC 119 @ NO 112Picked NO 54%Miss
- Jan 26OKC 107 @ NO 83Picked OKC 52%Hit