New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints40
- Jose AlvaradoAssists9
- Yves MissiRebounds13
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints27
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–123
- Q43.1Zach LaVine defensive rebound118–123
- Q43.1Trey Murphy III misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot118–123
- Q48.1Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan118–123
- Q48.1Pelicans Full timeout118–123
- Q48.1Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 2 of 2118–123
- Q48.1Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 1 of 2118–122
- Q48.1Trey Murphy III personal foul118–121
- Q415.0CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2118–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:50Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point shot (Zach LaVine assists)NO 79 – 81 SAC · SAC 61% → 71% +10SAC 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q44:08CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotNO 110 – 111 SAC · NO 19% → 36% +17NO 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q43:54DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot pullup jump shotNO 110 – 113 SAC · SAC 64% → 77% +13SAC 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q42:41Zion Williamson makes 1-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 114 – 115 SAC · NO 21% → 36% +15NO 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q42:23Domantas Sabonis makes tip shotNO 114 – 117 SAC · SAC 65% → 80% +15SAC 65% → 80%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -8.5
- ML NO +260 / SAC -330
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5
- SAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 69.2%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -276
- NO +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.5 – 124.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −7 | NO: Usual rotation · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +141 Elo | SAC 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +0.712th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 113.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–21 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–30 | 20–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 16–22 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–1 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.