Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–116
- Q415.2Adam Flagler makes two point shot (Dillon Jones assists)101–116
- Q425.1
Tristen Newton traveling99–116 - Q447.0Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot layup (Dillon Jones assists)99–116
- Q454.1Kenrich Williams defensive rebound97–116
- Q456.2Luka Garza misses 4-foot hook shot97–116
- Q458.1Luka Garza offensive rebound97–116
- Q41:00Adam Flagler blocks Tristen Newton 's 12-foot pullup jump shot97–116
- Q41:11Luka Garza offensive rebound97–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:55Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)OKC 70 – 74 MIN · MIN 34% → 43% +9MIN 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q37:22Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)OKC 70 – 77 MIN · MIN 43% → 53% +10MIN 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:39Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 80 – 84 MIN · OKC 44% → 54% +11OKC 44% → 54%+11 pts
- Q33:28Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)OKC 80 – 89 MIN · MIN 54% → 65% +11MIN 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q32:48Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointer (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)OKC 80 – 92 MIN · MIN 66% → 76% +10MIN 66% → 76%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -450 / MIN +340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.2%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -360
- MIN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.0 – 109.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1736 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +82 | −33 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +212 Elo | OKC 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 111.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.6 | Points allowed | 108.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.9 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.0 | Defense rating | 108.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–6 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–19 | 23–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–18 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–24 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.