Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Mike ConleyAssists5
- Naz ReidRebounds8
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints35
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q43.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound115–121
- Q44.0Naz Reid misses 29-foot three point jumper115–121
- Q46.1Timberwolves Full timeout115–121
- Q46.1Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2115–121
- Q46.1Tari Eason enters the game for Jalen Green115–120
- Q46.1Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2115–120
- Q46.1Jaden McDaniels personal take foul115–119
- Q49.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Tari Eason115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:54Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)MIN 91 – 93 HOU · HOU 52% → 63% +11HOU 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q47:56Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 103 – 105 HOU · MIN 23% → 36% +13MIN 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q45:30Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)MIN 108 – 108 HOU · MIN 29% → 47% +17MIN 29% → 47%+17 pts
- Q45:06Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 108 – 111 HOU · HOU 53% → 71% +18HOU 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q42:52Jaden McDaniels makes driving layup (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 110 – 113 HOU · MIN 13% → 24% +11MIN 13% → 24%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML MIN +140 / HOU -170
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- HOU 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 42.6%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- MIN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.0 – 113.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −16 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 108.66th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 17–99th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−16 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–32 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–27 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.