Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds9
Rockets- Aaron HolidayPoints25
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–98
- Q415.0Jock Landale makes 1-foot dunk (Amen Thompson assists)105–98
- Q415.1Rockets Full timeout105–96
- Q415.1shot clock turnover105–96
- Q415.1Warriors offensive team rebound105–96
- Q416.0Jimmy Butler III misses 24-foot three point jumper105–96
- Q417.1Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound105–96
- Q418.1Nate Williams blocks Jimmy Butler III 's 25-foot three point jumper105–96
- Q439.1Amen Thompson offensive goaltending turnover105–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Jock Landale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)GS 86 – 82 HOU · HOU 19% → 31% +12HOU 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q47:11Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)GS 91 – 86 HOU · GS 61% → 75% +14GS 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q46:03Aaron Holiday makes two point shotGS 91 – 88 HOU · HOU 23% → 33% +10HOU 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q45:13Brandin Podziemski makes 6-foot two point shotGS 93 – 89 HOU · GS 63% → 74% +11GS 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q43:42Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)GS 96 – 89 HOU · GS 78% → 91% +13GS 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML GS -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- GS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- GS: Elo 46.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | −10 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −15, Fred VanVleet −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 113.016th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 108.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 111.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−10 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−15 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–27 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–1 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.