Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints42
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperAssists6
- Naji MarshallRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–111
- Q48.1Brandin Podziemski bad pass (Naji Marshall steals)107–111
- Q410.1Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2107–111
- Q410.1Moses Moody enters the game for Gary Payton II107–110
- Q410.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Brandon Williams107–110
- Q410.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Klay Thompson107–110
- Q410.1Max Christie makes free throw 1 of 2107–110
- Q410.1Brandin Podziemski personal take foul107–109
- Q417.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Moses Moody107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:31Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 102 – 101 DAL · GS 41% → 64% +23GS 41% → 64%+23 pts
- Q42:00Stephen Curry makes two point shotGS 104 – 104 DAL · GS 35% → 55% +20GS 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q41:47Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)GS 104 – 107 DAL · DAL 45% → 75% +30DAL 45% → 75%+30 pts
- Q41:21Jimmy Butler makes tip shotGS 106 – 107 DAL · GS 20% → 42% +21GS 20% → 42%+21 pts
- Q425.1Naji Marshall makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Kessler Edwards assists)GS 107 – 109 DAL · DAL 48% → 85% +38DAL 48% → 85%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -330 / DAL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- GS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.4 pts
- GS: Elo 49.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -276
- DAL +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.5 – 114.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −50 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dante Exum −8, P.J. Washington −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 115.811th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 113.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.110th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–1114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−50 Elo- Dante Exum left achilles tightness−8 Elo
- P.J. Washington sprained right ankle−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–26 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.