Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints42
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints30
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game129–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime129–128
- OT0.1(00:00.6) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)129–128
- OT0.1Spencer Dinwiddie turnover129–128
- OT0.1Spencer Dinwiddie offensive charge129–128
- OT2.0DeMar DeRozan makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot129–128
- OT9.1Malik Monk enters the game for Keegan Murray127–128
- OT9.1DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Keon Ellis127–128
- OT9.1Domantas Sabonis enters the game for Jake LaRavia127–128
- OT9.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Klay Thompson127–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q415.1Kyrie Irving makes 2-foot two point shotSAC 114 – 116 DAL · DAL 50% → 92% +43DAL 50% → 92%+43 pts
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan makes 11-foot two point shotSAC 116 – 116 DAL · SAC <1% → 50% +50SAC <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:21Max Christie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)SAC 120 – 121 DAL · DAL 32% → 59% +27DAL 32% → 59%+27 pts
- OT10.0Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)SAC 127 – 128 DAL · DAL 4% → 81% +77DAL 4% → 81%+77 pts
- OT2.0DeMar DeRozan makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 129 – 128 DAL · SAC 2% → 98% +95SAC 2% → 98%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML SAC -115 / DAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5.5
- SAC 30%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.4 pts
- SAC: Elo 29.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 120.0 – 118.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −6 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +150 Elo | DAL 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +2.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–1014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–32 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–23 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.