Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints28
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds14
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints21
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–112
- Q40.1Jazz offensive team rebound114–112
- Q40.1Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–112
- Q43.0Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for KJ Martin114–112
- Q43.0Jazz Full timeout114–112
- Q43.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2114–112
- Q43.0Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Isaiah Collier113–112
- Q43.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound113–112
- Q43.0Jerami Grant misses free throw 1 of 2113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:48Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 90 – 87 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 27% +10UTAH 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q48:54Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)POR 90 – 92 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 50% +14UTAH 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q48:41Scoot Henderson makes 4-foot two point shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 92 – 92 UTAH · POR 50% → 60% +10POR 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q48:06Scoot Henderson makes two point shotPOR 94 – 92 UTAH · POR 59% → 69% +9POR 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q47:19Anfernee Simons makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 99 – 92 UTAH · POR 78% → 88% +10POR 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -7.5
- ML POR -300 / UTAH +240
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- POR: Elo 68.4%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- POR -255
- UTAH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.0 – 112.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −114 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −17, Robert Williams III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Collin Sexton −35, Jordan Clarkson −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +134 Elo | POR 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 112.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 119.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −7.128th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 117.230th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–19 | Road vs home | 7–2029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+16 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−17 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee soreness−8 Elo
Jazz
−114 Elo- Collin Sexton left ankle sprain−35 Elo
- Jordan Clarkson left plantar fascia−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–25 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–4 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.