Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints17
- Jusuf NurkicAssists5
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Toumani CamaraAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–141
- Q415.1shot clock turnover88–141
- Q439.1Nick Smith Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover88–141
- Q443.0Moussa Diabate defensive rebound88–141
- Q445.0Tidjane Salaun blocks Rayan Rupert 's 1-foot two point shot88–141
- Q449.1Rayan Rupert defensive rebound88–141
- Q451.0Nick Smith Jr. misses 14-foot pullup jump shot88–141
- Q41:12Duop Reath makes 1-foot dunk (Dalano Banton assists)88–141
- Q41:27Duop Reath defensive rebound88–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)CHA 0 – 3 POR · POR 67% → 72% +6POR 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q17:50Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)CHA 4 – 14 POR · POR 79% → 83% +4POR 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q16:15Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three pointer (Jusuf Nurkic assists)CHA 9 – 16 POR · CHA 17% → 21% +5CHA 17% → 21%+5 pts
- Q15:50Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point shot (Josh Green assists)CHA 12 – 16 POR · CHA 21% → 27% +5CHA 21% → 27%+5 pts
- Q12:20Jusuf Nurkic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)CHA 19 – 28 POR · CHA 14% → 18% +4CHA 14% → 18%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -6.5
- ML CHA +190 / POR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- POR: Elo 68.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- POR -201
- CHA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.5 – 117.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1309 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +2 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −18, Robert Williams III −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +136 Elo | POR 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 109.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 114.719th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −5.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 114.224th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 15–1420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+2 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−18 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee soreness−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–26 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 20–34 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–2 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.