Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints27
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints39
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game131–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime131–128
- OT2.2Thunder offensive team rebound131–128
- OT2.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot131–128
- OT6.1Jaylen Clark enters the game for Naz Reid131–128
- OT6.1Alex Caruso enters the game for Aaron Wiggins131–128
- OT6.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort131–128
- OT6.1Thunder Full timeout131–128
- OT6.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2131–128
- OT6.1Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Joe Ingles130–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411.2Jaden McDaniels makes 2-foot two point shot (Rob Dillingham assists)MIN 120 – 121 OKC · MIN <1% → 19% +18MIN <1% → 19%+18 pts
- Q411.2Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 1MIN 121 – 121 OKC · MIN 19% → 48% +29MIN 19% → 48%+29 pts
- OT45.1Alex Caruso makes driving layup (Jalen Williams assists)MIN 127 – 128 OKC · OKC 38% → 70% +32OKC 38% → 70%+32 pts
- OT22.1Naz Reid makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 128 – 128 OKC · MIN 25% → 47% +22MIN 25% → 47%+22 pts
- OT22.1Naz Reid makes free throw 2 of 2MIN 129 – 128 OKC · MIN 47% → 70% +23MIN 47% → 70%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML MIN +450 / OKC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.3%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -477
- MIN +477 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.5 – 120.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1720 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +25 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +194 Elo | OKC 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 117.65th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 105.11st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 116.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 103.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 25–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–33 | 36–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–27 | 35–20 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.