Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–123
- Q45.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound130–123
- Q48.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 26-foot three point jumper130–123
- Q416.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2130–123
- Q416.0Thunder offensive team rebound129–123
- Q416.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 1 of 2129–123
- Q416.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal take foul129–123
- Q425.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound129–123
- Q427.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot129–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:11Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)OKC 105 – 110 MIN · MIN 49% → 64% +15MIN 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q47:44Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 108 – 110 MIN · OKC 35% → 50% +15OKC 35% → 50%+15 pts
- Q47:12Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 111 – 110 MIN · OKC 50% → 65% +16OKC 50% → 65%+16 pts
- Q46:33Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 114 – 112 MIN · OKC 54% → 70% +16OKC 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q45:44Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 117 – 112 MIN · OKC 70% → 84% +13OKC 70% → 84%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -360 / MIN +280
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 65.9%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -297
- MIN +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.0 – 109.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −27 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +114 Elo | OKC 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 111.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Points allowed | 108.34th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.6 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.3 | Defense rating | 109.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–7 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–20 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–19 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.