Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Terrence Shannon Jr.Points25
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- LeBron JamesRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–111
- Q420.1LeBron James defensive rebound102–111
- Q422.1Naz Reid misses 15-foot two point shot102–111
- Q428.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2102–111
- Q428.0LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2102–110
- Q428.0Mike Conley personal take foul102–109
- Q430.1Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot102–109
- Q437.1Gabe Vincent makes free throw 2 of 2100–109
- Q437.1Gabe Vincent makes free throw 1 of 2100–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56Jaden McDaniels makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 88 – 92 LAL · MIN 16% → 24% +8MIN 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q45:23Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot (Naz Reid assists)MIN 90 – 93 LAL · MIN 18% → 27% +9MIN 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q44:55Luka Doncic makes 1-foot two point shot (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)MIN 90 – 95 LAL · LAL 74% → 83% +9LAL 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q43:39Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)MIN 91 – 98 LAL · LAL 81% → 93% +12LAL 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q43:03Jaden McDaniels makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 96 – 100 LAL · MIN 6% → 17% +11MIN 6% → 17%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML MIN +190 / LAL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.0%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -202
- MIN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.5 – 117.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | +44 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +100 Elo | LAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 113.015th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 111.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.111th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 20–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–33 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–27 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 33–26 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.