Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Max ChristieAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints27
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–107
- Q421.1Austin Reaves defensive rebound99–107
- Q424.0Max Christie misses driving layup99–107
- Q432.0LeBron James makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)99–107
- Q448.1P.J. Washington vs. Austin Reaves (LeBron James gains possession)99–105
- Q456.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 199–105
- Q456.1Luka Doncic shooting foul98–105
- Q456.1Kyrie Irving makes driving layup98–105
- Q41:05Mavericks Full timeout96–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 85 – 86 LAL · DAL 21% → 34% +13DAL 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q46:58Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 88 – 88 LAL · DAL 25% → 39% +15DAL 25% → 39%+15 pts
- Q46:31LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 88 – 91 LAL · LAL 60% → 75% +15LAL 60% → 75%+15 pts
- Q46:17Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 91 – 91 LAL · DAL 25% → 40% +15DAL 25% → 40%+15 pts
- Q43:49Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 94 – 96 LAL · DAL 13% → 28% +15DAL 13% → 28%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML DAL +300 / LAL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5.5
- LAL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 71.3%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -320
- DAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.5 – 120.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +34 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +158 Elo | LAL 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 113.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 111.811th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 19–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–27 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.